European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics

Title : The uncertain future of economicintegration for Europe and the world 


Abstract : Since 2010, trade integration around the globe has stalled, with the global trade to GDP ratio hovering around 30 percent. Over the last fifteen years, the world has witnessed Britain’s exit from the EU, the US-China Trade War, and major trade sanctions against Russia. This lecture will evaluate the welfare impacts of market fragmentation due to Brexit and the US-China Trade War, drawing lessons from these events for the European market integration project. It will explore the looming challenges for European internal market integration and Europe’s integration with the world.

Title : Institutional Genes: The Origins of China’s Institutions and Totalitarianism


Abstract : This book explores the origins and evolution of China’s institutions and communist totalitarianism in general. Contemporary China’s fundamental institution is communist totalitarianism. Introducing the concept of “institutional genes,” the book examines how the institutional genes of Soviet Russia merged with those of the Chinese imperial system, creating a durable totalitarian regime with Chinese characteristics – Regionally Administered Totalitarianism. Institutional Genes are fundamental institutional elements that self-replicate and guide institutional changes and are empirically identifiable. By analyzing the origins and evolution of institutional genes in communist totalitarianism from Europe and Russia, as well as those from the Chinese Empire, the Chinese Communist Revolution, the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, and post-Mao reforms, the book elucidates the rise and progression of communist totalitarianism in China. The ascent of communist China echoes Mises’ warning that efforts to halt totalitarianism have failed. Reversing this trend necessitates a thorough understanding of totalitarianism.

We are very pleased to announce that ECARES will hold a special one-day conference to honor
Gérard Roland on April the 3rd, 2025, at Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB).
Confirmed speakers at this stage are Philippe Aghion, Patrick Bolton, Sergei Guriev, Eric
Maskin, Torsten Persson, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Richard Portes, André Sapir, Monika Schnitzer,
Guido Tabellini, Guntram Wolff, Chenggang Xu, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, and Katia
Zhuravskaya.
As you know, Gérard has made outstanding contributions to multiple fields, and this event is an
opportunity to celebrate his 70th birthday and his work, and to reflect on its impact over the
years.
It is also an opportunity for us to welcome him back to ULB: Gérard studied economics at ULB,
from his Bachelor degree to his PhD, and was a Professor here until continuing his very successful
career at UC Berkeley, from which he will retire this year. We are very fortunate that he and his
wife have decided to return to Brussels.
It is striking how ‘topical’ Gérard’s return in 2025 is: he was a key member of the team that
founded ECARES (then ECARE) in 1991, thanks to the help of our Institute for European Studies
and of CEPR. ECARES started with a conference focused on topics very close to Gérard’s work at
the time: the transition from central planning to a market economy in the wake of the fall of the
Berlin Wall, and its consequences for the European Union. While we can clearly not be happy with
the current state of world affairs, we can say that Gérard’s insights remain remarkably relevant
today !
On April the 3rd, we are thus gathering a group of academics, friends, and colleagues to share
ideas on topics where Gérard has produced influential research, with a special focus on the
above topics as they have evolved in the new ‘geo-politico-economic’ environment. The focus will
be both on Europe and its institutions, and also on the global institutional architecture.
We are very much looking forward to welcoming you on this occasion !

Participation is free, but registration is mandatory via
https://forms.office.com/e/JM5rbMaDn5 by Thursday March 27th, 2025

Full Program available here : Gérard Roland Program

Micael Castanheira and Mathias Dewatripont
ECARES, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, ULB

Title: For Better or for Babies: Fertility Constraints and Marriage in China

Abstract: Can fertility policies have unintended effects on who gets married? We investigate the effect of the 2015 relaxation of China's one-child policy on marriage outcomes. Before universal permission for two children, certain groups were already allowed to have two children. At the same time, China's sex ratio is highly skewed towards more marriageable men than women. Being allowed to have a second child could be a valuable characteristic in the marriage market, increasing men's chances of marriage. Previously advantaged men might then lose out from the relaxation of the one-child policy as they lose their marriage market advantage. Using detailed policy data on exemptions from the one-child limit and individual data from 2010–2018, we find that after the relaxation men who were previously allowed to have a second child are less likely to get married. There is no effect on women. The effect is concentrated within counties with high fertility rates and provinces with a high sex imbalance. The results suggest that differential fertility constraints distorted who got married by giving those allowed to have a second child an advantage. We also find that provinces where more people were exempted see an increase in positive assortative marriages after the relaxation, suggesting distortions also on who married whom.

Title: The American Origin of the French Revolution 

Abstract: We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more revolts against feudal institutions, revolutionary societies, volunteers for the revolutionary army, and emigrants from the Old Regime’s elite. To establish causality, we exploit two historical coincidences: i) originally, a French army of seven and a half thousand was ready to sail, but one-third did not; ii) among those deployed, only some regiments were stationed in New England.Only combatants exposed to New England affected the French Revolution after their return.