TITLE : The Theory-Based View of Strategy: How Counter-Theories Shape Confidence and Persuasion

ABSTRACT : In this talk, I will present the emerging theory-based view of strategy and entrepreneurship, in particular, the role of counter-theories and their role in rationally calibrating confidence and persuasion processes. Counter-theories are logical arguments against a current viewpoint or theory of a strategist. While Ehrig&Schmidt (2022) show that rationally learning from counter-theories can change theories about the future of an industry, even if they are rejected, I will present two newer results. In ongoing work with Todd Zenger, we show that if Bayesian learning suggests that confidence in pursuing a big goal should be low, and persistence would be overconfident, listening to counter-theories can rationally elevate the confidence of the strategist again, enabling rational persistence in the face of negative feedback about an initial theory of a strategist. This process is characterized by a recalibration of confidence in yet untestable assumptions, and we call such confidence "confidence type 2". In ongoing work with Jens Schmidt, we show that challengers (like Tesla) can use counter-theories to persuade incumbents (like Daimler) and these persuasion processes can be manipulative, as the incumbents can work with superior awareness, implying a logic of persuasion that is different from signaling or Bayesian persuasion. I will conclude the talk with ideas that, if we had taught them, may have helped the German car industry to react wiser in interactions with Tesla.

Ehrig & Schmidt 2022 SMJ: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/smj.3381

Ehrig & Zenger 2024 SS: https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/full/10.1287/stsc.2024.0177